BC’s Economy Will Not Improve According to Jock Finlayson - executive vice president and chief policy officer of the Business Council of BC

Residential home sales have fallen markedly in the last year or so. Recently, however, lower interest rates and earlier price declines have improved affordability, with home sales moving higher.

Some market watchers believe the housing down-cycle is over. But the Ministry of Finance estimates that residential sales in 2019 will hover near 46,000, down from almost 74,000 two years ago.
At the same time, housing starts, which have been strong so far this year, are poised to slump, in line with reduced demand from non-resident buyers and decisions by many B.C. developers to pull back from planned projects.

The provincial government predicts that housing starts will drop by more than one-fifth in 2020.
The deteriorating global economy is another major worry. Slower growth in major external markets, including the U.S., China and Germany, is already beginning to pinch B.C.’s exports.
Through July, the value of provincial exports was down by three per cent from 2018 levels. The forest industry has suffered the biggest blow, with wood product exports sagging by around 20 per cent. There is little chance of a meaningful export recovery in 2020.

The rolling economic crisis in the forest sector is another significant negative in B.C.’s economic picture. Mills are closing and jobs are being lost across the province. Forestry provides one-third of B.C.’s merchandise exports.

Dwindling residential investment will detract from aggregate economic growth. It will also work against the policy objective of enhanced affordability, which – among other things – requires an increased supply of new housing units.

Reference: https://www.vicnews.com/opinion/column-and-now-the-bad-news-about-b-c-s-economy