Greater Victoria Neighbourhood: Vic West

Vic West is a diverse neighbourhood with modern harbour-front condominium complexes such as the Railyards and Dockside Green, historic hilltop homes and single-family residences.

Geographically, this rapidly growing community is surrounded by water. It features scenic shorelines and accessible walkways, including Songhees Walkway, which connects its shipyards, marina, numerous parks and the Vic West Community Centre in Craigflower Village. On its western border lies the town of Esquimalt.

The Galloping Goose provides a beautiful pathway for cyclists and pedestrians which allows them to commute from the city centre through Vic West to areas to the north over Portage Inlet.

Banfield Park contains areas for active recreation, passive experiences and nature conservation. Vic West Park includes the City's only skate park, an enclosed off-leash dog area, a baseball diamond and playground equipment.

The Vic West Elementary school (SD61) serves families who have children in kindergarten to grade five.

Vic West has seen a great deal of development in recent years, especially adjacent to the waterfront. Property values have generally risen, and the community has embraced new changes while also retaining their more traditional values. For instance, Vic West residents are serious about locally grown food with an active Food Security Collective (https://vicwestfoodsecurity.org). The community also has three gardens including Shine Garden, Banfield Commons and VW Community Tea Garden, and three community orchards including Evans Orchard, Hereward Park Community Orchard and Banfield Park Community Orchard.

Vic West is an eclectic mix of architecture and community personalities.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau Instructed to Review the Mortgage Stress Test

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has asked Finance Minister Bill Morneau to consider changes to the mortgage stress test. The mandate letter states the finance minister will “review and consider recommendations from financial agencies related to making the borrower stress test more dynamic.”

Canada has stress tests in place for home loans that are insured against the borrower defaulting on their payments and those that are not. The insured test was brought in by the finance ministry, while the uninsured test was instituted by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.

Canada’s real estate industry has been critical of the stress test since its inception – especially on uninsured mortgages - for being a drag on the housing market. One being it wasn’t adjusted following a rise in interest rates which put pressure on borrowers.

In his considerations, Morneau must adhere to key principles for implementing the government’s fiscal plans. They include:
•Reduce debt-to-GDP
•Preserve Canada’s triple-A credit rating
•Continue investment in “people and in the things that give people a better quality of life”
•Preserve “fiscal firepower” in case of an economic downturn

Seasons Greetings

Wishing all my clients and families a wonderful Christmas and a very Happy New Year.

Thank you for trusting me with your real estate needs, and I'm looking forward to serving you in 2020.

Jane Logan

Wait for a Price Correction, or Buy Now?

The results from many polls reveal many people feel they should wait for a real estate price correction before they buy. While I can’t fault them on waiting, I always raise a note of caution that it’s exceptionally difficult for anyone to time the market. A quick look at the history of price corrections in Greater Victoria using prices adjusted to 2018 dollars demonstrates why.

In 1994, the people who said, “let’s wait on the sidelines for a price correction” were right for about a year and a half while we saw single detached home prices drop 12 per cent until 1996. However, if they kept waiting because they were hoping for an even larger dip, they waited in vain for the next six years while prices essentially flat lined. In 2002, prices exploded and rose an astonishing 105 per cent. Few saw it coming. Anyone who wasn’t already in the market missed out on the massive surge in appreciation.

In 2011, those who said “wait for a price drop” were correct while prices dropped 10 per cent. But those waiting after 2014 were disappointed as prices once again took off rising 40 per cent.

The problem with waiting on the sidelines for a price correction is, no one knows what housing prices will do in the short term. I encourage my clients to keep in mind what home prices have done over the last 55 years; a steady rise in average value from $80,000 to over $900,000 (in 2018 dollars). Instead of being concerned about timing the market, it’s better to buy when you are qualified, financially capable, and ready to take on a first or new home. Your finances are within your control.
The housing market is not. (Graph courtesy of House Hunt Victoria).

BC Real Estate Association’s Mortgage Rate Forecast

BC Real Estate Association’s December 11th Mortgage Rate Forecast Report predicts the Bank of Canada prime rate is likely to remain flat through to the end of this year and throughout 2020. The average five-year fixed rate is expected to increase incrementally in the first and second quarters, then stay level at 2.95 per cent through the remainder of 2020.

An interesting question they ask is why the Bank of Canada (BOC) is so intent on remaining firm on keeping interest rates steady with so many central banks around the world lowering their policy rates?

BOC reports reflect great concern that lower interest rates would spur a greater accumulation of household debt, which the BOC believes is a greater risk to the Canadian economy than deteriorating global economic conditions. Canadian policymakers have committed to “bending the curve” on the Canadian household debt-to-income ratio, through a combination of higher interest rates and stricter mortgage policy. Balanced against the goal of restraining debt, the BOC sees the risk of further disruption in global trade as manageable.

View full report: https://bcrea.bc.ca/wp-con…/uploads/mortgagerateforecast.pdf

BC Real Estate Association’s Mortgage Rate Forecast

BC Real Estate Association’s December 11th Mortgage Rate Forecast Report predicts the Bank of Canada prime rate is likely to remain flat through to the end of this year and throughout 2020. The average five-year fixed rate is expected to increase incrementally in the first and second quarters, then stay level at 2.95 per cent through the remainder of 2020.

An interesting question they ask is why the Bank of Canada (BOC) is so intent on remaining firm on keeping interest rates steady with so many central banks around the world lowering their policy rates?

BOC reports reflect great concern that lower interest rates would spur a greater accumulation of household debt, which the BOC believes is a greater risk to the Canadian economy than deteriorating global economic conditions. Canadian policymakers have committed to “bending the curve” on the Canadian household debt-to-income ratio, through a combination of higher interest rates and stricter mortgage policy. Balanced against the goal of restraining debt, the BOC sees the risk of further disruption in global trade as manageable.

View full report: https://bcrea.bc.ca/wp-con…/uploads/mortgagerateforecast.pdf

Market Less Volatile as Average Provincial Prices Rise

Sales increased in November throughout the province even while active residential listings were 6.6 per cent lower at 31,310 units compared with November 2018 according to the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA). The sales-to-active listings ratio for all home types held firm at 21 per cent which BCREA considers a balanced market.

Average prices also gained upward momentum in November coming in at $746,939, up 5.5 per cent compared with last November.