Greater Victoria Neighbourhood: Vic West

Vic West is a diverse neighbourhood with modern harbour-front condominium complexes such as the Railyards and Dockside Green, historic hilltop homes and single-family residences.

Geographically, this rapidly growing community is surrounded by water. It features scenic shorelines and accessible walkways, including Songhees Walkway, which connects its shipyards, marina, numerous parks and the Vic West Community Centre in Craigflower Village. On its western border lies the town of Esquimalt.

The Galloping Goose provides a beautiful pathway for cyclists and pedestrians which allows them to commute from the city centre through Vic West to areas to the north over Portage Inlet.

Banfield Park contains areas for active recreation, passive experiences and nature conservation. Vic West Park includes the City's only skate park, an enclosed off-leash dog area, a baseball diamond and playground equipment.

The Vic West Elementary school (SD61) serves families who have children in kindergarten to grade five.

Vic West has seen a great deal of development in recent years, especially adjacent to the waterfront. Property values have generally risen, and the community has embraced new changes while also retaining their more traditional values. For instance, Vic West residents are serious about locally grown food with an active Food Security Collective (https://vicwestfoodsecurity.org). The community also has three gardens including Shine Garden, Banfield Commons and VW Community Tea Garden, and three community orchards including Evans Orchard, Hereward Park Community Orchard and Banfield Park Community Orchard.

Vic West is an eclectic mix of architecture and community personalities.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau Instructed to Review the Mortgage Stress Test

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has asked Finance Minister Bill Morneau to consider changes to the mortgage stress test. The mandate letter states the finance minister will “review and consider recommendations from financial agencies related to making the borrower stress test more dynamic.”

Canada has stress tests in place for home loans that are insured against the borrower defaulting on their payments and those that are not. The insured test was brought in by the finance ministry, while the uninsured test was instituted by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.

Canada’s real estate industry has been critical of the stress test since its inception – especially on uninsured mortgages - for being a drag on the housing market. One being it wasn’t adjusted following a rise in interest rates which put pressure on borrowers.

In his considerations, Morneau must adhere to key principles for implementing the government’s fiscal plans. They include:
•Reduce debt-to-GDP
•Preserve Canada’s triple-A credit rating
•Continue investment in “people and in the things that give people a better quality of life”
•Preserve “fiscal firepower” in case of an economic downturn

Seasons Greetings

Wishing all my clients and families a wonderful Christmas and a very Happy New Year.

Thank you for trusting me with your real estate needs, and I'm looking forward to serving you in 2020.

Jane Logan

Wait for a Price Correction, or Buy Now?

The results from many polls reveal many people feel they should wait for a real estate price correction before they buy. While I can’t fault them on waiting, I always raise a note of caution that it’s exceptionally difficult for anyone to time the market. A quick look at the history of price corrections in Greater Victoria using prices adjusted to 2018 dollars demonstrates why.

In 1994, the people who said, “let’s wait on the sidelines for a price correction” were right for about a year and a half while we saw single detached home prices drop 12 per cent until 1996. However, if they kept waiting because they were hoping for an even larger dip, they waited in vain for the next six years while prices essentially flat lined. In 2002, prices exploded and rose an astonishing 105 per cent. Few saw it coming. Anyone who wasn’t already in the market missed out on the massive surge in appreciation.

In 2011, those who said “wait for a price drop” were correct while prices dropped 10 per cent. But those waiting after 2014 were disappointed as prices once again took off rising 40 per cent.

The problem with waiting on the sidelines for a price correction is, no one knows what housing prices will do in the short term. I encourage my clients to keep in mind what home prices have done over the last 55 years; a steady rise in average value from $80,000 to over $900,000 (in 2018 dollars). Instead of being concerned about timing the market, it’s better to buy when you are qualified, financially capable, and ready to take on a first or new home. Your finances are within your control.
The housing market is not. (Graph courtesy of House Hunt Victoria).

BC Real Estate Association’s Mortgage Rate Forecast

BC Real Estate Association’s December 11th Mortgage Rate Forecast Report predicts the Bank of Canada prime rate is likely to remain flat through to the end of this year and throughout 2020. The average five-year fixed rate is expected to increase incrementally in the first and second quarters, then stay level at 2.95 per cent through the remainder of 2020.

An interesting question they ask is why the Bank of Canada (BOC) is so intent on remaining firm on keeping interest rates steady with so many central banks around the world lowering their policy rates?

BOC reports reflect great concern that lower interest rates would spur a greater accumulation of household debt, which the BOC believes is a greater risk to the Canadian economy than deteriorating global economic conditions. Canadian policymakers have committed to “bending the curve” on the Canadian household debt-to-income ratio, through a combination of higher interest rates and stricter mortgage policy. Balanced against the goal of restraining debt, the BOC sees the risk of further disruption in global trade as manageable.

View full report: https://bcrea.bc.ca/wp-con…/uploads/mortgagerateforecast.pdf

BC Real Estate Association’s Mortgage Rate Forecast

BC Real Estate Association’s December 11th Mortgage Rate Forecast Report predicts the Bank of Canada prime rate is likely to remain flat through to the end of this year and throughout 2020. The average five-year fixed rate is expected to increase incrementally in the first and second quarters, then stay level at 2.95 per cent through the remainder of 2020.

An interesting question they ask is why the Bank of Canada (BOC) is so intent on remaining firm on keeping interest rates steady with so many central banks around the world lowering their policy rates?

BOC reports reflect great concern that lower interest rates would spur a greater accumulation of household debt, which the BOC believes is a greater risk to the Canadian economy than deteriorating global economic conditions. Canadian policymakers have committed to “bending the curve” on the Canadian household debt-to-income ratio, through a combination of higher interest rates and stricter mortgage policy. Balanced against the goal of restraining debt, the BOC sees the risk of further disruption in global trade as manageable.

View full report: https://bcrea.bc.ca/wp-con…/uploads/mortgagerateforecast.pdf

Market Less Volatile as Average Provincial Prices Rise

Sales increased in November throughout the province even while active residential listings were 6.6 per cent lower at 31,310 units compared with November 2018 according to the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA). The sales-to-active listings ratio for all home types held firm at 21 per cent which BCREA considers a balanced market.

Average prices also gained upward momentum in November coming in at $746,939, up 5.5 per cent compared with last November.

Speculation Tax Exemption for Strata Owners

If you own a condo or townhouse that falls under a strata rental ban, your unit will be exempt from paying the speculation tax until Dec. 31, 2021 as per Finance Minister Carole James’ recent announcement. The exemption was originally scheduled to expire this year. The additional time provides some financial relief for owners, but note it only applies to those who bought before the tax came into effect on October 16th, 2018. If your purchase was made after October 16th, 2018, you will be required to pay the tax even if you cannot rent your unit due to your strata.

B.C. and Canadian owners of multiple homes are required to pay a 0.5 per cent surcharge on the assessed value of their properties if they are not rented out at least six months of the year. This “speculation tax” applies throughout Greater Victoria.

Local Micro Breweries Thriving in Victoria

Five Victoria breweries came home with awards from this year’s BC Beer Awards in Vancouver.

Congratulations to the breweries in Greater Victoria including newly opened Ile Sauvage and Whistle Buoy Brewing, along with the established 4 Mile Brewing Co., Lighthouse Brewing and Vancouver Island Brewing.

Ile Sauvage Brewing Company and Whistle Buoy Brewing took top honours in the European sour category for their Shiro Shiro Berliner Weisse, while Ile Sauvage placed third in the smoke-and-wood-aged-beer category and was also named rookie of the year. Whistle Buoy took home a third-place award for its Gulagubben in the specialty beer category. Vancouver Island Brewing’s Hermannator Ice Bock and Dominion Dark Lager placed first and third, respectively, in the dark and strong European categories. Lighthouse Brewing took third place in the spice beer category for its Nightwatch, second place for Shipwreck in the North American IPA category and second place in the Imperial IPA category for Numbskull. Four Mile Brewing placed first for its Hazy Citra Pale Ale in the North American pale ale category.

Canadian Job Numbers Are Out

British Columbia lost 18,000 jobs in November according to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey for November 2019. The Canadian economy lost 71,200 jobs in November and overall unemployment rate went up 0.4 percent from the month before; the worst jobs report since 2009, when Canada was still dealing with the aftermath of the global economic crisis. The natural resources sector had the biggest hit with 25,000 (7.2 per cent) lost jobs. The largest impacts were felt in Alberta and British Columbia.

CTV Report on Victoria Property Assessments

BC Assessment’s preliminary 2020 projected market value for the province includes moderate changes in Greater Victoria, where single family homes could see a 10% drop in value while condos could drop by 5%. However, the assessment agency notes that residential properties could also rise by 5%. It depends on specific neighbourhoods.

The official value changes will be announced on January 2nd, 2020. Check out their current report
https://info.bcassessment.ca//news/Pages/2020-property-assessments-reflect-BC-moderating-markets.aspx

Greater Victoria Neighbourhood: Brentwood Bay

Brentwood Bay is a lovely, picturesque village in Central Saanich situated on the Saanich Inlet. It is home to famous attractions as Butchart Gardens, the Victoria Butterfly Gardens and the Brentwood Bay Lodge & Spa. Once a limestone quarry, Butchart Gardens is now filled with flowers, a luxurious 20-hectare estate attracting over one million visitors a year. Victoria Butterfly Gardens houses hundreds of exotic butterflies flying free in an indoor tropical rain forest. Brentwood Bay Resort offers 36 beautifully designed accommodations featuring king-sized beds, down comforters, gas fireplaces, floor to ceiling windows and spa-like bathrooms.

The BC Ferries terminal in Brentwood Bay connects to Mill Bay, providing an alternative travel route to the Malahat for those traveling up-island. Described as the Island’s most Beautiful Shortcut, this is a very convenient and particularly scenic route across the Saanich Inlet.

This rapidly developing village offers excellent accommodation, waterfront restaurants, and all amenities, and is a jumping off point for kayakers, canoeists and mountain hikers. Hiking aficionados will appreciate the excellent hiking and abundance of wildlife in Gowlland Tod Provincial Park which protects one of the last remaining natural areas in Greater Victoria.

Schools include Brentwood Elementary, Bayside Middle School and Brentwood School of Music.

Interesting fact: The town was originally named Sluggett after an early settler, but it was renamed Brentwood Bay for the British town of Brentwood, Essex, hometown of R.M. Horne-Payne, president of the British Columbia Electric Company in the 1920s.

Yacht club’s Sea of Lights

Friday Dec. 6, the Royal Victoria Yacht Club’s annual Sea of Lights hits the water on December 6th, with boats leaving the Ripon Road club at 6:45 p.m. and passing Cattle Point about 7 p.m. There will be good viewing at Willows Beach about 7:15 p.m., with the Kiwanis Club offering hot chocolate by donation at the Willows Beach pavilion. Hot chocolate and coffee donated by Cadboro Bay businesses will be served.

Selling Your Home During the Holidays?

Some people need to sell over the holidays, and some buyers have no alternative but to buy a home during the holidays. Whether or not it's best to put or to keep your home on the market comes down to personal preference, but there are some benefits and drawbacks you should consider as you make your decision.

Benefits:
Buyers who are looking through Christmas tend to be serious. Few people are ‘kicking tires’ this time of year.

Reduced inventory over the holidays generally means less competition even though the pool of buyers also dips. Canadians from snow-bound areas – meaning most Canadians outside of Victoria – might be motivated to start looking online for a house in our green-year-round city.

If you have a hard-to-sell home with drawbacks and defects, it might rise to the top when there are fewer homes for sale over the holidays.

Drawbacks:
It's inconvenient during the holidays to always be ready for a home showing at a moment's notice. Not everybody wants to keep the house spic and span when cooking, wrapping gifts, and throwing parties.

You're appealing to a much smaller inventory of buyers.

It's difficult to finance transactions in December if the offer is received mid-month. Buyers who want to close after the New Year will probably make offers in January.

Many Realtors® are taking their vacations in December and unavailable as the market moves into a seasonal slowdown.

Tips for Holiday Showings: 
Scale Back the Holiday Decorations. You don't have to altogether avoid putting up a Christmas tree, menorah, or any other seasonal displays, but you should aim to keep the decorations to a minimum. Don't block or cover selling features such as fireplace mantels, stairs, or stained-glass windows. Too many decorations can be overwhelming and distracting. Don't make the mistake of thinking buyers will "see past it," because they likely will not.

Use Seasonal Smells to Your Advantage. People are motivated to buy through emotion, and some of our deepest and dearest emotions are linked to the smells of the holiday season. Setting out a plate of cookies on the counter along with festive paper napkins for guests or spicy apple cider simmering on the stove along with cups and serving utensils will go a long way to making your home smell wonderful.

If you need to sell or buy your home during the Christmas season, give me a call to discuss strategies.

Surveying Canadians About Debt

Debt is on Canadian’s minds according to a survey conducted by Manulife which, rather alarmingly, is called “Is Household Debt Cracking Canada’s Financial Foundation?” The survey claims two in five of their respondents are worried they will not get out of debt in their lifetime.

However, it goes on to stipulate that most Canadians are comfortable with their mortgage obligations; 73 per cent stating they feel “somewhat or very” comfortable with the amount they owe on their mortgage, and 22 per cent saying they feel “very” comfortable.

How many Canadians currently have a mortgage? 42 per cent own a house or condo and are paying a mortgage. Breaking it down by demographic, 58 per cent of the Gen-Xers, 46 per cent of the Millennials and 30 per cent of the Boomers. They lower number of Boomers with a mortgage is partly because more of them managed to pay it off.