Political Promises About Housing – Justin Trudeau

Trudeau pledged, if the Liberals are re-elected, of course, to expand the First Time Home Buyers Incentive (FTHBI), implemented September 2nd, to cover home values of up to $789,000, replacing the current cap of $480,000 in the hot housing markets of the Greater Toronto, Vancouver and Victoria.

The proposed expansion of the program does not apply to areas outside of those three markets.

Reference: https://globalnews.ca/news/5893892/trudeau-liberals-first-time-homebuyers-program-expansion-campaign-promise

Political Promises About Housing – Andrew Scheer

The Federal election is underway, and Canadians are once again hearing political promises from candidates. On the housing front, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer says he will make it cheaper for Canadians to buy homes by allowing first-time home buyers to take out 30-year mortgages to help lower monthly payments.

He also promised to ease what’s known as the stress test on mortgages and remove it altogether from mortgage renewals. “For millions of Canadians their home is the largest investment they will ever make,” Scheer said.

Reference: https://globalnews.ca/news/5939018/andrew-scheer-mortgages-housing

First Time Home Buyer’s Incentive (FTHBI)

On September 2nd the Liberal introduced an incentive to help first-time homebuyers. The First Time Home Buyer’s Incentive (FTHBI) will reduce their monthly mortgage carrying costs without adding to their financial burden.

Eligible first-time home buyers can apply to finance 5 per cent or 10 per cent through a shared equity mortgage of their home purchase with the Government of Canada. The Incentive is not interest bearing and does not require ongoing repayments.   

Some of the criteria to qualify for this incentive are:

• an insured mortgage;
• a minimum down payment to be eligible;
• a maximum qualifying income is no more than $120,000;
• and a borrowing limit of up to 4 times the qualifying income.

Find out more at https://www.placetocallhome.ca/fthbi/first-time-homebuyer-incentive

Greater Victoria Neighbourhoods – Highlands

The Highlands encompass much of the unparalleled beauty of the west coast forest and seaside. Avid hikers will love Gowlland Todd Provincial Park’s 25 kilometers of trails, spectacular views and natural flora and fauna across the east side of Saanich Inlet.

This natural area is rich in biodiversity and it protects dry coastal Douglas fir, grassy meadows, alders and old-growth forest. It’s also a wetland area protecting species of rare plants and animals. Hikers will especially enjoy spring and summer when small rivers and waterfalls feed the verdant green and rocky knolls break out in splendid arrays of wildflowers.

The serene Todd Inlet is a favourite place for boaters wanting calm, sheltered anchorage. The abundant marine life also attracts scuba divers from around the world.

The pace is slower and more relaxed here. When you purchase a home in the Highlands, you will enjoy a peaceful stillness surrounded by west coast forests.

Proposed Increase to First-Time Home Buyer Incentive

The Liberal proposal to raise the value of homes that qualify for the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive to $789,000 from $505,000 may nudge up demand, but houses in Toronto, Vancouver and Victoria are too expensive for most families to take advantage, said Sal Gualtieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

However, if you are a First-time buyer on the hunt for a condominiums or townhouse, you may find the program useful. I can help you utilize the program should you decide to employ it.

Reference: https://edmontonjournal.com/news/canada/many-canadians-would-be-left-out-of-liberal-home-buyer-proposals-experts/wcm/aa054c95-a1da-40dd-ab94-b28e4278f45f

BC’s Tax on Speculation – Quick Report

The province reported foreign owners and satellite families have paid $58 million in the 2018 calendar year and $57 million from the first quarter of 2019. As of Sept. 3, 11,783 homeowners in B.C. are paying the tax. This includes 4,621 foreign owners, 3,060 satellite families, 1,519 Canadians living outside of B.C., 2,362 B.C. residents and 221 others, such as properties held through corporations and trusts.

“It is in fact targeting speculators, people living outside of B.C.”, said Finance Minister Carol James, adding that 99.8 per cent of British Columbians are exempt from paying the tax.

However, an estimated 17,000 people still have not completed their declarations.

Read more: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-bc-speculation-and-vacancy-tax-brings-in-58-million-for-2018

Impacts of Speculation Tax

“We are being forced to leave because B.C. Finance Minister Carole James has decreed that we are foreign “speculators” who don’t deserve to be here. It feels like she has withdrawn the Canadian welcome invitation extended to us 14 years ago.” Retired person living in Minneapolis who formerly had a part-time home in James Bay.

This is becoming a common lament of long-time, part-time Victorians who don’t live in Victoria full time and who are not set up to rent out their home away from home. Read the full story in Times Colonist: https://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/letters/comment-goodbye-victoria-speculation-tax-is-forcing-us-to-leave-1.23946820

Is the speculation tax doing what it’s supposed to, or is it doing more harm than good? Let me know what you think.

Sales Numbers Trend Up from Last August

Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) numbers show a large climb in sales for August. Falling mortgage rates, and anticipation of new policies are what is driving market growth in Canada. There were 43,478 unadjusted sales process through CREA, down 9.0% from the month before. This represents a 5.7% increase compared to the same month last year. The monthly decline is seasonal, but larger than expected.

Reference: https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats

Effective Household Interest Rates

Since hitting a multi-year high earlier this year, borrowing rates have been trending lower.
The effective interest rate for households is a weighted-average index of interest paid, with both consumer and mortgage loans being weighted in the average. Few households actually pay the posted 5-year fixed rate, and analyzing these numbers reveals interest actually paid.

The effective interest rate reached 3.7% on September 6, down 0.8% from the month before, and 7.96% from the peak reached earlier this year. The rapid decline means rates are the lowest they’ve been since June 2018.

Reference: https://credit.bankofcanada.ca/financialindicators/eir

Swan Lake Christmas Hill Nature Sanctuary

Need to press the pause button on your hectic city life? Swan Lake Christmas Hill is a gem in the heart of the city where you can enjoy scenic, restful and largely untouched area where you can take a deep breath and release daily anxieties.

Managed by the non-profit society, it became a nature sanctuary society in 1975 as local politicians, naturalists and area schools and post-secondary institutions joined forces to protect the 65-hectare area from development. It features two physically and ecologically distinct areas, including the low wetland surrounding Swan Lake and the rocky, oak forest hilltop of Christmas Hill.

Four dozen native flower and plant species, more than 180 bird species make the nature reserve their home, and bears, raccoons and deer are regularly sighted meandering through the bush and foraging for food.

The grounds, nature trails and parking lot are all open dawn to dusk every day at 3873 Swan Lake Rd, Saanich. Admission is by donation. The Nature House is open year-round, except for statutory holidays.

More at https://www.swanlake.bc.ca

Greater Victoria Neighbourhoods – Uplands

Architect John Olmsted was famous for designing some of the best neighbourhoods and parks in North America. In 1907, he was commissioned to craft a beautiful landscape in north east Oak Bay. The result was Uplands; an early 20th century neighbourhood of impressive homes, winding streets amongst fully grown trees, manicured gardens, and unique globe streetlamps. It is a peaceful and idyllic with no overhead wires to distract the eye from the landscape.

If you enjoy sailing, you will love Royal Victoria Yacht Club. https://www.rvyc.bc.ca It is the oldest in western Canada and they host regular regattas and sailing races. New sailors are always welcome. The club provides a wide range of services including moorage, cruising excursions, kayak & stand up paddle boards rentals, dining and themed events. As they put it, they offer “fun for kids from two to one hundred and two.”

The Uplands Golf Club https://www.uplandsgolfclub.com is a challenging course with exceptional fairways and greens you can play any time of the year. They have hosted many RCGA, National, Provincial and local championships including PGA Tour Canada. A Google reviewer called it a “mecca for socializing and a facility that allows you to participate in a physical activity well into your 80's.”

Uplands Park and the adjoining Cattle Point feature breathtaking ocean views from the craggy shoreline. You will see Discovery and Chatham Islands, The San Juan Islands beyond, and on a clear day, Mount Baker’s snow covered peak. Storm watchers will especially enjoy the wild winter winds and surf crashing over the jagged rocks, filling the air with salt spray. Down a set of stairs, there is a causeway that takes you south to Willows Beach with its family friendly playground.

Population Growth Drives Real Estate Rental Market

Canada’s strong population growth is the highest in the G7. With 80% of this coming from immigrants who typically rent before buying a home, this creates a strong base for rental apartments. This trend will continue; RBC Economic Research earlier this year said that the Canadian government is looking to boost its annual immigration targets, from 330,000 in 2019 to 350,000 by 2021.

While it has always been a stable asset class, the multifamily sector is now benefiting from market fundamentals that are as good as they have ever been and are unlikely to change for some time.

That’s good news for investors. If you are a renter, not such good news. The continuing lack of inventory will continue to drive higher rents and lower vacancy as supply remains constrained.

Are you looking to buy your own home or invest in property? Let’s start a conversation to see what you need.

References: 
https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/market-update/canadas-multifamily-market-has-never-been-stronger-says-cbre-303901.aspx

https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/vancouver-montreal-rental-demand-impelled-by-multiple-factors-303694.aspx

Canada Avoiding a Recession

Despite global trade tensions, “dismal” low productivity, high personal debt and worries about consumer confidence, on balance, Michael Gregory the deputy chief economist and head of U.S. economics at BMO Capital Markets, does not see Canada slipping into a recession.

“We’re going to skirt recession,” Michael Gregory said at a conference in Toronto. He held out several reasons for his claim:

1. He doesn’t believe there will be an increase in protectionist policies because the worst effects from new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on some important goods and commodities have yet to hit American consumers.
2. Canada’s steadily growing population, which is fueling residential construction to provide a moderate increase in both investment activity and productivity.
3. Canadian personal debt levels did decline while fears of interest rate hikes were on the minds of consumers, but they are rising once again. 
4. He doesn’t see Canada’s growing federal deficit is a major concern. Canada’s debt to GDP has been quite stable at around that 30 per cent mark for some time, and the Feds can currently borrow fixed, long-term money at about 1.5 per cent interest: “You can do a lot on infrastructure, you can do a lot on other programs with that kind of money.”
5. Consumer confidence is key. Gregory said the way consumers respond to local and global events will be the ultimate decider.

Reference: https://renx.ca/canada-skirt-recession-bmo-michael-gregory

Bank of Canada (BOC) Maintains Overnight Rate Target at 1 ¾ Per Cent

Why did the Bank of Canada make this decision last week, and what does this mean for you? The US-China trade conflict combined with policy responses by some central banks, have pushed bond yields to historic lows and inverted yield curves in several economies, including Canada.

The yield spread simply means subtracting short-term interest rates from long-term interest rates.  The yield curve is a plot of interest rates for government bonds of all maturities in a given country. Bond yields represent, in percentage terms, the price investors are willing to pay for those securities.  When demand for bond purchases rises, prices rise, and thus yields (interest rates) fall. When long-term bond yields are lower than short-term yields, the spread is negative, and the yield curve is inverted. 

The key meaning of an inverted yield curve is inflation and is going to be much lower in 2029 than it is in 2019. When inflation expectations for future periods are lower this can indicate a slowing, and perhaps contracting, global economy.

Central banks, including the Bank of Canada, therefore keep the interest rate low in order to make borrowing cheaper and stimulates growth.

If you’re interested in either buying or selling real estate, a lower cost of borrowing certainly helps.

References: 
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/09/fad-press-release-2019-09-04

Single-Home Values Fall Slightly and Condo Values Rise (August 2018 to August 2019)

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single-family home in the Victoria Core in August 2019 was $847,300 – a decrease of 4.6 per cent from August 2018 when the same home was $888,100.

The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core in August 2019 was $518,100, an increase of 2.9 per cent for the same condominium in August 2018 when the benchmark price was $503,600.

Reference: https://www.vreb.org/current-statistics

Neighbourhoods - VICTORIA

When Victoria won number two spot in Conde Nast’s list of best small cities in the world in 2017, nobody who is familiar with BC’s capital city was surprised. The place named after a Queen provides a ‘royal’ experience to anyone who visits. Victoria has it all. When it comes to the good life, this city of gardens wrote the book.

The first thing newcomers notice is the natural beauty of this city. It gets its nickname, ‘California North’, from a balmy temperate climate, miles of beaches, and a palm tree in a lot of yards. Beacon Hill Park is the ‘front lawn of Victoria; a 200-acre park of trees, small lakes, and gardens, and home to blue herons and peacocks.

When people arrive by seaplane to Victoria, the first thing they see is the iconic Fairmont Empress Hotel, the magnificent grand dame gracing the Inner Harbour. To her right, the provincial parliament buildings rise in stately contrast to the surrounding five acres of green lawns. Both buildings were designed by famous architect Francis Rattenbury using local materials.

Just past the front lawn of the Parliament buildings are stairs that will take you along the lower causeway of the Inner Harbour. The walkway hosts vendors, musicians, buskers, food trucks, and shops and accesses moorage for boats and sea planes.

Over the Johnson Street Bridge into Esquimalt, you will find the brand-new Victoria International Marina off the Songhees walkway just in front of Pelly Island. It is a world-class luxury yacht center and provides a gateway to some of North America’s most spectacular cruising waters. https://vimarina.ca 

Victoria is alive with arts, culture, entertainment and festivity. A multitude of galleries feature the works of local artists. As a long-time supporter of the arts in our community, I’d particularly like to point out Pacific Opera Victoria (https://pacificopera.ca) and the Art Gallery of Greater Victoria (https://aggv.ca).

Members of The Union Club of British Columbia organized an evening of local food, music and art as a fundraiser for the Art Gallery of Greater Victoria’s. Art + Fare is coming up on Saturday, September 21st. I’d be delighted if you’d like to join us! Go to http://artandfare.com for more information.

Victoria has the highest number of restaurants per capita in all of Canada, and the second highest number in North America, next to San Francisco. This is a foodie’s paradise where you’ll find any kind of cuisine you could want. The Victoria Public Market at the Hudson (https://victoriapublicmarket.com) offers gourmet foods and local produce. Restaurants like Ferris' Oyster Bar and Grill on Yates Street, or the Blue Crab Seafood House in James Bay solidify Victoria’s reputation for excellent seafood.

Amenities and services abound. Exceptional schools are too many to mention. Recreation centres are everywhere – the YWCA, the Crystal Pool centre, and Curves to name a few. On many different surveys across the country, Victoria consistently ranks high on 'happiness' and 'quality of life’. When you spend any time here, you will know why. A simple stroll along the breakwater at Ogden Point in James Bay under a sun-streaked sky, with a cool ocean breeze, munching on fish and chips from Red Fish, Blue Fish -- and you know that it does not get any better than this.

Believe it!

Is Canada’s Housing Correction Over? It Looks Like It Is.

The correction is in our rear-view mirror according to Robert Hogue, senior economist at Royal Bank of Canada

“The recovery is on,” Mr. Hogue says.

“The national market appears to be getting over the stress test and other cooling measures. A drop in interest rates this year has helped too. Overall activity in Canada was the strongest since December 2017.”

The Canadian Real Estate Association reported sales rose 3.5 per cent from June’s level. The benchmark MLS Home Price Index price gained a 0.2-per-cent increase in July from the same month last year to mark the first rise in six months. July also saw the fifth consecutive month of rising sales, now 15 per cent above the six-year low of February.

Reference: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/article-rbc-economist-says-correction-in-canadas-housing-market-is-over 

Link Between Residential Real Estate and the Business Cycle

Statistics Canada’s numbers reveal residential real estate investment growth in Q2 2019 was one of the few sectors to boost GDP this past quarter. That’s of interest because studies show residential investment is strongly linked to the business cycle. The higher a country’s dependence on residential investment, the more it influences its business cycle. Part of the reason is due to the nature of residential real estate investments compared to other forms of investment. The stock market is volatile; Ups and downs often occur daily. Residential real estate is almost a far more stable long-term investment by comparison due to capital gains.

Are you interested in learning more? If so, I’ll report further on this topic.

References:
http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Housing-Paper-Real-Estate-Prices-VS-GDP.htm 
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-highest-home-ownership-rates.html
https://betterdwelling.com/canadas-gdp-gets-a-boost-by-deepening-reliance-on-real-estate

A Look at Canadian Politics

With the Federal election writ drop looming, Government ministers are handing out around $34 million worth of funding commitments around Vancouver Island, from housing and Indigenous communities to infrastructure and the environment.

University of Victoria political scientist Jamie Lawson points out “chequebook politics is built into Canada’s DNA.” He shares his views on “election goodies” in Times Colonist article https://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/on-eve-of-election-goodies-piling-up-on-the-island-1.23929153

Victoria’s Averages for Mortgages and Loans

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation released some interesting statistics about mortgages and loans in Greater Victoria for Q1 (Jan, Feb, March) of 2019.

The monthly mortgage payments in our region rose by 4.9 per cent on an annual basis. The average monthly mortgage amount is $1,628. Other types of loans Victorians are paying include HELOCs (Home Equity Line of Credit) which saw the largest increase in average payments at 12 per cent, and credit card payments which went up by 3 per cent.

Mortgage delinquency rates in Greater Victoria, though rising slightly from 0.12 per cent of outstanding accounts last year to 0.13 per cent in Q1 2019, compares well to BC’s average of 0.17 per cent.

Fewer people hold mortgages in our region: Only 27 per cent of Greater Victoria’s consumers carried a mortgage during the first quarter, which is lower than the national level of 29 per cent.

Reference: https://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/greater-victoria-households-average-mortgage-payment-steadily-growing-302781.aspx

Summer Activity in Victoria’s Market

Realtors® reported an active interest in the market even though people are in summer vacation mode. Most of the interest was for entry level homes and competitively priced properties.

“High end home pricing has been softer, but $1.5 million dollar plus homes account for only 4.6 per cent of the total market,” says Victoria Real Estate Board President Cheryl Woolley.

Housing Sales Rise to Nearly 14% in July

Sales rose nearly 14 per cent from June to a seasonally adjusted 6,650 units.

Why?
The decline in mortgage rates and lower home prices likely helped to persuade more buyers to enter the market. A tight labour market and a net gain in people moving to BC also increase demand. The mortgage stress test is a constraint which buyers seem to be adjusting to by increasing their down payments and/or delaying their purchases.

Reference: https://biv.com/article/2019/08/bc-housing-sales-rise-close-14-july

Into the Arctic at the Bateman Centre

Showcasing artwork that took Canadian painter and videographer Cory Trépanier over a decade to create, the Bateman Centre is currently home to fifty original oil paintings along with videos which convey the wonder of the North. Without doubt, it is the most ambitious body of artwork ever dedicated to the Canadian Arctic.

Trépanier traversed over 40,000 kilometres, through six Arctic National Parks and 16 Arctic communities with painting and filming gear in tow.

“I hope my work might spark awareness and conservation about Canada’s Arctic, and instil a greater appreciation and concern for the future of its ever-changing landscape.” – Cory Trépanier

https://batemancentre.org/exhibits/into-the-arctic