Credit and Economic Growth

Credit is such a big driver of the real estate market that any moves to restrict or loosen it tends to have a substantial effect. That in turn affects the general economy because rising house prices, generally encourage consumer spending and lead to higher economic growth while a drop in house prices adversely affects consumer confidence, construction and leads to lower economic growth.

Rate hikes seem to be on hold for now.

That means the stress test, which requires all who are getting a new loan to qualify at the Bank of Canada’s current five-year benchmark rate, or on their contract rate (the rate they’ve been quoted and agreed to), plus two percentage points. 

Last year, the rising interest rates with the added stress test continually lowered the amount buyers could qualify for. This year, if interest rates remain steady, that may give buyers more time to qualify.

Victoria is shifting into a balanced market.

Victoria is building more inventory and putting more homes up for sale this January. There were 2,057 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® by January 31st which is a 38 per cent increase from the same time last year.


Victoria has shifted from a seller's market into a balanced market.
A seller's market is indicated when there is a shortage of inventory for purchasers to choose from.
A balanced market means that there is enough supply from sellers to equal the demand from buyers.
A buyer’s market is indicated when there is a surplus in housing or more homes for sale than buyers.

Victoria Home Price Index

Victoria Real estate Board (VREB) reported the Home Price Index benchmark value for a single-family home in the Victoria Core in January was $847,800, which is a 0.9 per cent net increase from January 2018. 

From December 2018 to January 2019, prices fell from $858,600 to $847,800 – a decrease of 0.98 per cent. CREA reported the price of a typical house in Canada reached $613,500 in January, down 0.52% from the month before. Prices are 0.79% higher than the same month last year, but down 2.28% from the peak reached in May 2018. Vancouver made the largest decline, with the price of a typical home falling to $1,019,600 in January – a 4.52% decline compared to last year. Even so, Vancouver remains the most expensive market in the country. 

Why Are We Penalizing First Time Home Buyers?

Conservative Canadian financial practices have saved us from a U.S. style downturn in the housing market, but perhaps it’s time to revisit the stress test for first-time home buyers. After all, they are just beginning their careers.

As such, many people will increase their incomes and saving potential over time, and they shouldn’t be barred from purchasing due to the stress test.

SOURCE: BNNBloomberg.ca

City of Victoria Policy

The City of Victoria proposed a policy that would require all new condo projects to include 10 to 15 per cent affordable rental units, and there has been a good deal of push back on the idea, especially from the Urban Development Institute which suggests an “inclusionary housing” policy could actually drive prices up. 

Find out more about the proposed policy and the opinions of various stakeholders in the Times Colonist article. 

Have You Received Your Letter?

The Speculation and Vacancy Tax is a new annual tax requiring all property owners in the taxable regions to complete a declaration. 

Make sure you complete your declaration by March 31^st or you will receive a tax notice from the BC government and may be taxed at 0.5 per cent of your property’s assessed value.

Are Vancouverites looking to exit the market?

New listings for Greater Vancouver real estate made a sudden surge last month. According to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) 4,848 new listings hit the market in January 2019, which is a 244.6% from December 2018.

Monthly increases in January are expected, but the numbers also show the number of new listings in January 2019 are up 27.7% from January 2018. People who wish to leave Vancouver and move to Victoria will find the continued difference in market prices very much in their favour.

References: Better Dwelling, REBGV

Canadian Consumer Debt

Canadian consumer debt is at an all-time high, but Canadians appear to be slowing down acquiring more, due in part to tighter mortgage lending rules.

Most of the debt was on mortgages, which printed a new record with outstanding mortgage debt reaching $1.546 trillion and consumer debt at $620 billion for a total of 2.16 trillion in December 2018 according to the Bank of Canada.